According to analysts at Asymco, the new ‘iPhone 5’ could sell over 263 million units worldwide. This is based off the Apple’s senior vice-president of worldwide marketing, Phil Schiller’s “Each new generation sold approximately equal to all previous generations combined” statement. The 263 million unit figure came upon adding the iPhone 2G, 3G, 3GS, 4, and 4S sales together.
Based on the chart above, Asymco was able to figure the iPhone 3G sold four times as many units as the original iPhone. The iPhone 3GS then sold 1.6 times more units than the iPhone 3G. The iPhone 4 was found to match the sales of all previous iPhones, but keep in mind there is still a quarter left, and the iPhone 4 could still continue to sell in the future if Apple so chooses.
The iPhone 4S on the other-hand is still only around the halfway mark to reaching its 162 million target. Taking into account the iPhone 4S will sell at a cheaper price for the upcoming few years, it should be able to sell an additional 90 million units.
This now brings the iPhone 5 in question. Thus far, the cumulative sales of all iPhones rests at 263 million units. The figure may not seem achievable, but if Apple holds the upcoming iPhone on the market as long as they left the 3GS, their chances look great.
Here’s Asymco’s take on the situation:
Taking that forecast forward and assuming a 60% growth rate, I currently have about 200 million iPhones over the next twelve months. If 85% of those are the next generation, that yields about 170 million iPhone “5?s through mid 2013.
Do you think Apple has a shot at selling 263 million next-generation iPhones over its lifespan?