Analysts are joining hedge funds in painting a positive future for Apple: while hedge funds are betting on Apple reaching $1 trillion in market cap, some analysts, such as Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty, are projecting the Apple Watch’s potential.
As Huberty’s “conservative” guess put on paper and sent out to investors reveals, Apple could sell as many as 30 million Apple Watches in its first year of availability (via AppleInsider).
The analyst’s forecast is based on Apple’s product launch patterns: the company was projected to sell 9 million iPhones in its first year of availability, for example. It sold 12 million. When it launched the iPad, the forecast consensus was around 5 million, while Apple sold 15 million units in 2010.
Considering the above, plus the iPhone’s user base, Huberty foresees an Apple Watch adoption rate that is faster than ever. She estimates that roughly 10% of the compatible iPhone user base (iPhone 5 or newer) will buy an Apple Watch. That translates into 30 million units in calendar 2015 alone.
As a result, she raised her Apple stock price target to $126, joining other investment firms such as Piper Jaffray, UBS, and Evercore. Meanwhile, Apple is on track to reach $1 trillion in market cap.