Analyst Expects Apple Watch to Sell Up to 30 Million Units in 2015

Analysts are joining hedge funds in painting a positive future for Apple: while hedge funds are betting on Apple reaching $1 trillion in market cap, some analysts, such as Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty, are projecting the Apple Watch’s potential.

Apple watch versions

As Huberty’s “conservative” guess put on paper and sent out to investors reveals, Apple could sell as many as 30 million Apple Watches in its first year of availability (via AppleInsider).

The analyst’s forecast is based on Apple’s product launch patterns: the company was projected to sell 9 million iPhones in its first year of availability, for example. It sold 12 million. When it launched the iPad, the forecast consensus was around 5 million, while Apple sold 15 million units in 2010.

Considering the above, plus the iPhone’s user base, Huberty foresees an Apple Watch adoption rate that is faster than ever. She estimates that roughly 10% of the compatible iPhone user base (iPhone 5 or newer) will buy an Apple Watch. That translates into 30 million units in calendar 2015 alone.

As a result, she raised her Apple stock price target to $126, joining other investment firms such as Piper Jaffray, UBS, and Evercore. Meanwhile, Apple is on track to reach $1 trillion in market cap.

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  • Al

    1 in 10 compatible iPhone users buying an Apple Watch?! I don’t think so. I say half that, at best. But probably much less.

  • Canucksgoal

    The cheaper version can sell way more than the gold version.

  • Al


  • Brad

    Agreed. 7 out of 10 of my friends had thought of buying the cheap version one. I think the cheap one will sell well.

  • FerrariF1

    So in a subset of 10 iphone buyers, 7 have said they will buy one. We might see more then 1 in 10 buyers.

  • Al

    Polling your geek friends isn’t very scientific.

    Just off the top of my head… to buy this watch, you have to be…
    1. At least a little geeky about it.

    2. Willing to be an early adopter (because version 2 will likely be so much better).
    3. Generally… a guy. Although there will be a female style watch, generally speaking, a hugely smaller percentange of females will want this thing.

    The more I think about it, the more I believe the ratio will be closer to 1 in 50 – 60…. About 1 in 30-40 for guys and about 1 in 70 – 80 for girls.

  • Tim

    This will be the equivalent of the iphone 2g in terms of benefits/features; limited, not very mature. I don’t think wearables are yet compelling enough to entice people into buying two devices. I bought a Nike fuel band, had a pebble, gave up on both after the novelty wore off…and for that reason I’m out.

  • Tim

    I should add, I’d buy a round version. Nothing about the apple watch is stylish for me. Moto 360, at least, looks much better.

  • ????Dennis

    I tried posting a link for the new HP smart watch, but the mods won’t let me post a link… Guys you gotta check it out. It’s surprisingly a real classy watch, something I’d consider buying.

    Just google: “HP WATCH GILT”. It’s designed by Michael Bastian

    Never mind these geeky Apple watches. Al got it right… For geeks and diehard fanboys.

  • ????Dennis

    A watch is supposed to compliment your wardrobe not your smart phone….

  • Zachelor

    Wow, stylishly ugly…

  • Mike

    Névo might be your cup of tea.