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iPhone X is Cannibalizing iPhone 8 Pre-Orders, Says Kuo

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In a new research note to investors, KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has predicted that iPhone X is “very likely” to cannibalize iPhone 8 pre-orders. As pointed out by MacRumors, many models of the iPhone 8 and the iPhone 8 Plus were available for launch day delivery through the weekend, as opposed to traditionally selling out within hours, and many are still available for launch day pickup in Apple retail stores.

Iphone 8

The analyst believes that majority of iPhone fans are waiting for the iPhone X, which is why he is “positive on demand” for the iPhone X and predicts that the market will be conservative on iPhone 8 and its suppliers in the near term. Furthermore, high demand for iPhone X could impact Apple’s fourth-quarter earnings results, since the device won’t go on sale till November and that too in extremely limited supply at first.

“Historically, it takes 3-6 weeks or more to ship new iPhone models after they are available for preorder, due to initial tight supply and robust demand. However, our latest review indicates it will take less than 1-2 weeks for the iPhone 8. We believe this is because there is a strong likelihood that iPhone X demand will cannibalize iPhone 8 pre-orders.”

On the other hand, Kuo noted that demand for the LTE Apple Watch 3 has been “significantly stronger” than expected:

“Before the media event, we forecasted the production weighting of the GPS + Cellular version would be 30-40%. However, the pre-order website shows shipments of this version are taking much longer than those of the GPS version (3-4 weeks, from shipments launch day of September 22). We estimate the preorder weighting of the GPS + Cellular version is 80-90%”

Initial stocks of the Apple Watch Series 3 LTE models sold out within 15 minutes of when pre-orders became available for the device on Friday, September 15.

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  • BeaveVillage

    The X is pretty pricey, and if you don’t want to lose your fingerprint, stick with 8.

  • Ned K.

    The X is like a test unit at the moment. I’m not willing to bet on it, and its display is made by Samsung with extremely low brightness – only 460 nits. Galaxy S8 has 1,000 nits and Note 8 has 1,200 nits of brightness. Apple definitely tried to cut some outsourcing costs from Samsung by using worse OLED by Sam but only with the curved edge display. If you need an upgrade, iPhone 8/8Plus is the way to go. You won’t be able to see anything with 460 nits outdoor.

  • KBlazer07

    Sold my stocks in Apple, don’t know anyone buying the X, even those (like me) that saved for it. Ridiculous price for what you get. I can’t see them meeting earning forecasts for the foreseeable future, regardless of what excuses they use.

  • KBlazer07

    Agreed, nice post.

  • sully54

    Wow. You’ve based the performance of a company’s stock based on purely personal decisions you and a bunch of people you know have made.

    You should probably stay away from the stock market, not just apple stocks.

  • KBlazer07

    It’s really based on the super high expectations put on the X and the fact it will be delayed longer than expected, there is no way Apple can meet expectations. Add to that the high price and the fact the average person (in Canada and I assume other countries outside the US where Apple has slapped an almost 50% increase to the actual exchange rate) can’t really justify the technology vs cost increase. The fact that the 8/8S aren’t selling makes me believe I made the right choice (although the watch is doing better than expected). I will probably buy it back in half a year, I am just betting that sales will be MUCH lower than expected.

  • KBlazer07

    It’s really based on the super high expectations put on the X and the fact it will be delayed longer than expected, there is no way Apple can meet expectations. Add to that the high price and the fact the average person (in Canada and I assume other countries outside the US where Apple has slapped an almost 50% increase to the actual exchange rate) can’t really justify the technology vs cost increase. The fact that the 8/8S aren’t selling makes me believe I made the right choice (although the watch is doing better than expected). I will probably buy it back in half a year, I am just betting that sales will be MUCH lower than expected.

  • sully54

    iPhone X shortages aside, sales are going to be through the roof this holiday quarter. Get back in while stock price is low.

  • Vince

    The iPhone X has 625 nits. https://www.apple.com/iphone-x/specs/

  • KBlazer07

    You might be right, stocks are a gamble. My hope is that it drops $10/share in the next quarter and I can buy back in with more shares. If people are holding off on the 8/8S and the X is released late and limited supplies, there’s no way this quarter will be good. Next quarter might be a different story.

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