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iPhone X Pre-Orders to Hit 50 Million, TrueDepth Camera Remains Production Bottleneck: KGI

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The top-of-the-line iPhone X is more than likely to be a massive success for Apple, but whether the Cupertino company can overcome production issues to meet consumer demand still remains an uncertainty before the device’s November launch.

In a note to clients this morning via 9to5Mac, KGI’s well-regarded Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said he expects Apple iPhone X pre-order demand to surpass 40-50 million units.

Kuo also notes that it is the first completely redesigned form factor for the iPhone since the iPhone 6 — an update that generated a so-called “supercycle” for purchases, upgrades and switchers.

Kuo is convinced that the iPhone X’s new Face ID feature is sure to be a big selling point for the device, as no other product exists on the market that offers such an experience. That selling point, however, is also a major bottleneck for iPhone X productions, claims Kuo.

“The 3D sensing (TrueDepth camera) on iPhone X is composed of a structured-light system, time-of-flight system and a front-facing camera, which represents a far more complex structure than those of rivals,” Kuo said. “It will therefore be harder to achieve mass production.”

According to Kuo, Apple plans on ramping up iPhone X production later in October in anticipation of a launch in early November. However, supply will only begin to catch up with consumer demand at some point early next year.

“We believe some component suppliers have pulled in iPhone 8 from 4Q17 to 3Q17 so that more resources can be allocated to iPhone X in 4Q17 to meet robust demand,” the analyst stated.

Pre-orders for the iPhone X begin October 27, and the smartphone releases officially on November 3.

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  • DoctorT

    I think they really overestimate the amount of people that’ll buy a $1000+ USD cell phone.
    It looks like a great phone, but priced way to high imo.

  • DavY

    I thought the same too, but I’ve seen a lot of people lately driving around in their leased cars for $1000+ a month, designer heels $1000+, designer bags $1000+, and bottle service at the clubs can add up after a few weekends. Seems like the market is there.

  • OliChabot

    Really impatient to see how the market will react to this iPhone. Will it be a massive sucess and suggest that Apple can price their phone really high and still sell like hotcakes ? Will it be a somewhat unsatisfying release and show that consumer have a price limit expected from a phone for the masses ?
    This would most likely influence how Apple will position itself in the coming years.

    On my personnal level, I hope it is not a huge sucess so that there is competition and a urge for innovation. After all, if people are eager to spend 300 extra bucks for a Face unlockand an all-screen design, I’m kind of scared. But everyone has their right to buy what they want. I just hope most of the consumers relay on other versions and the X only appeal to the tech-savvy fan.

  • aRhyno

    Apple kept the iPhone SE for a reason. There’s a market for it. Same as keeping older phones like 6s and such because people buy them since they are cheaper. Now apple is stepping up in the “high end” market. I think it’s a good thing. Problem is. People have been waiting for the all screen iPhone but most were hoping for the same price. I’m sure apple will release more all screen phones at a lower price as the years go on. This isn’t a test. This is just that materials are that much right now. Next year we will see smaller all screen phones. I’m a fan on the home button but I’ve wanted an all screen phone and will be happy to lose it.

  • Mamba

    And I think you’ve greatly underestimated the amount of people that’ll buy a $1000+ smartphone.

  • BeaveVillage

    Interesting, I guess the notch doesn’t bug as many people as I thought? Good on them I guess, definitely a subjective issue for sure.

  • Quattro

    “It will therefore be harder to achieve mass production.” … I fail to see the reasoning for this statement. It’s not like they have to fuss with it during manufacturing. It’s designed in advance, then simply built and assembled, like anything else. People on an assembly line won’t be fussing with it.

    And I see face ID as a usability weakness – not a selling point.

  • xxxJDxxx

    Guess not. I personally thought that no headphone jack would be a deal breaker but it didn’t seem to slow then down either.

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