Analysts at Nomura Predict ‘iPhone 8’ to Top Success of iPhone 6

Analysts at Nomura expect that a “supercycle” will develop concerning Apple in the last few months of 2017, estimating that the upcoming iPhone 8 will be a much, much bigger success for the company than the iPhone 6 was.


Business Insider reports that Nomura thinks the market is underestimating the likely scale of iPhone 8 sales. Specifically because iPhone 6 sales were so high, the base of would-be upgraders is much larger:

We estimate the iPhone 8 will launch into an iOS subscriber base 45-50% larger than the iPhone 6 did and model 86 million iPhones in F1Q18 (from 83 million).”

The increase in subscribers has been driven by sales of the iPhone 6, the analysts say: “We believe the iPhone 6 drove the iOS base up ~35%, followed by 5-10% increases from the subsequent devices.” Anyone who is still using an iPhone 6 is a prime candidate for buying a new iPhone in late 2017.

Nomura is bullish on Apple’s stock headed into 2017 ahead of an iPhone 8 super-cycle. In a recent report, analyst Jeffrey Kvaal reduced the firm’s projections for March and June quarters’ iPhone 7 Plus demand. However, Kvaal believes this muted iPhone 7 Plus demand will simply be pushed back to the iPhone 8 cycle. Nomura believes the general consumer population is not fully appreciating the potential of the iPhone 8 cycle.

“Consensus models but modest growth in Dec-18 unit volumes, despite an iOS subscriber base that will be 45–50 percent larger than the prior iPhone 6 supercycle,” Kvaal explained.

The iPhone 8, codenamed “Ferrari,” according to leaked manufacturing documents, is expected to include a new kind of OLED screen already used by Samsung, which would allow the phone to have a borderless, all-display front surface, along with a number of significant upgrades. Hopefully these upgrades drive consumers to purchase the next-gen iPhone at record numbers.

World-traveling, tech-savvy, music-producing writer obsessed with all things Apple, video games, and the finer things in life, e.g. mezcal and tacos. When I'm not writing I'm exploring new places, eating new foods, and generally trying to be a decent human.

  • Jay

    Would the next iPhone not be the 7s? Is 4, 4s, 5, 5s, 6, 6s etc.

  • Jason

    No, it has been said that phones will be moving to a 3 year cycle. If you noticed the 6, 6s and 7 all are basically the same design. The next iPhone, i think, will be called the iPhone 8.