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Winners and Losers of the Smartphone Industry

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Recently we debated about whether or not Apple would win the current smartphone “war”. With real competition finally on the rise, how will Apple respond? What’s more interesting is analyzing which companies haven’t responded and putting all this data into easy to read flow charts.

This is what Horace Dediu has done on his blog, and it clearly shows the winners and the losers of the current smartphone race over the past two years. Nokia clearly is the biggest loser and Apple is the winner when it comes to profit share.

Although the data does not contain all market participants, the shifts in share are quite closely conserved with the vector magnitude (arrow length) and angle (direction) paired. Note how Nokia and Apple swapped Profit without too much impact in Units volume. Similarly, RIM and Sony Ericsson traded profits and volumes quite symmetrically. Samsung also took volume while Motorola lost it. HTC and LG did not change positions dramatically.

Finally, moving all vectors to the same origin leads to this view of share gain/loss over two years in two dimensions:

It becomes quite easy to see who the winners and losers are and by how much.

This model is only an observation of the shifts in market power and is not conclusive about where share was gained or lost, however there is compelling symmetry which also matches the intuition of observers.

Competition is great for consumers as it gives us more choice and also forces companies to innovate and get better. Who knows what the next iPhone 5 (?) will entail. Maybe it will actually be available in white?

What do you think of Nokia’s fall and Apple’s rise?

[asymco via DF]

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  • Anonymous

    Damn nokia is losing soo much shares……

  • I used to like Nokia…. before the iPhone came out…. =)

  • I used to like Nokia…. before the iPhone came out…. =)

  • I used to be in Mobile Device sales for a very large retailer. After doing month after month of training from every single carrier and manufacturer, I can safely say this is not a surprise at all. Nokia has a very clumsy OS and awkward handsets. It is too bad though, I used to love Nokia before the “smartphone” was invented.

  • I used to be in Mobile Device sales for a very large retailer. After doing month after month of training from every single carrier and manufacturer, I can safely say this is not a surprise at all. Nokia has a very clumsy OS and awkward handsets. It is too bad though, I used to love Nokia before the “smartphone” was invented.

  • I used to be in Mobile Device sales for a very large retailer. After doing month after month of training from every single carrier and manufacturer, I can safely say this is not a surprise at all. Nokia has a very clumsy OS and awkward handsets. It is too bad though, I used to love Nokia before the “smartphone” was invented.

  • Jreid2375

    Nokia’s were the bomb. My first cell phone was in 1996. Nokia 101. hehe..i used to put it in my back pocket and be worried about breaking the screen as it was sticking out of my pocket. I owned many more after that, sadly nokias are now crap and have alot of work to do if they’re to catch up, if they even can.

  • Anonymous

    Nokia needs to dump the symbian OS and adapt android or windows 7 to get back in the game.

  • One that I would be curious to know how much they lost is Palm. I was a Palm user since the first Treo until I changed to iPhone.

  • Accordtr

    Please realize that this is for SMARTPHONE numbers not ALL phones. Nokia makes a ton on cheap everyday phones for general use. Don’t feel too bad for them.

  • BM

    Absolutely right! Apple only makes smartphones (it’s their only phone), while the “free” phone being offered by your wireless company is surely to come from Nokia (or LG). I’d like to see Apple’s market share Vs. all phones. One should also note that the real profit is made with market share growth, where several companies (including RIM) still lead Apple.

  • Stringer

    “Who knows what the next iPhone 5 (?) will entail. Maybe it will actually be available in white?”

    LOL!!!

  • Oh!…that’s great helpful, it’s so right to me! Million thanks for the article,

  • I’ll back again for sure, thanks for great article šŸ˜€

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