Analyst Says Changes to Apple’s App Store From Regulatory Pressure Will Have Minimal Financial Impact

Recent changes to Apple’s App Store in response to regulatory and legal pressure will have minimal financial impact on the company, analysts say.

A new research note from Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty (via PED30) notes that while Apple has said the changes “will help make the App Store an even better business opportunity for developers,” there will be minimal financial impact to the Cupertino company.

“We see the recent App Store announcements as having minimal financial impact to Apple,” she said in a note to clients Wednesday.

In the note, Huberty said the changes would result in just a 1-2 percent hit to Apple’s earnings per share in the 2022 fiscal year, in a worst case scenario.

The report notes that since 2016 and 2018 respectively, Spotify and Netflix have prevented users, from signing up using Apple’s in-app purchase system, meaning that Apple hasn’t collected a dime from new subscriptions to either platform for at least three years. So, a new change allowing Netflix and Spotify to provide an in-app link that redirects to their respective websites for account management doesn’t really change much in the functional aspect.

However, Huberty did lower her revenue forecast for the App Store, citing slower near-term engagement. But stronger advertising revenue largely will offset that trend, she said.