There won’t be any major changes in the smartphone landscape anytime soon, an updated five-year forecast published by International Data Corporation (IDC) reveals. Although the iPhone’s popularity is growing, Android will continue to take the lion’s share of the smartphone market with 81%, while the iPhone will rule 14.2% of the market, the updated IDC forecast reveals.
“China clearly remains a very important market. However, the focus will be more on exports than consumption as domestic growth slows significantly,” said Ryan Reith, Program Director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “India has captured a lot of the attention that China previously received and it’s now the market with the most potential upside. The interesting thing to watch will be the possibility of manufacturing moving from China and Vietnam over to India. We’ve begun to see this move as a means to cut costs and capitalize on financial benefits associated with localized India manufacturing. It is the local vendors like Micromax, Lava, and Intex that will feel the most pressure from international competition within its market.”
Apple will control about 15.6% of the smartphone market by the end of 2015, IDC predicts, with 223.7 million devices shipped. By the end of 2019, iPhone shipments are expected to reach 269.6 million units, but that will account for “only” 14.2% of the market, the market research firm says. In light of lower-cost iPhone 6C launch rumours, some may think Apple will gain more market share.
Not so fast, says Ryan Reith, program director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. The reason is pretty straightforward, according to Reith: Apple will struggle to compete with Android manufacturers, which are focused on devices that cost $200 or less.
This doesn’t mean, though, that the iPhone’s success won’t continue, as unit shipments will grow from the 192.7 million recorded in 2014 to 269.6 million in 2019. It is worth mentioning, though, that there has been a noticeable spike in phablet demand since Apple launched the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus. As a result, smartphones with 5.5-inch displays or bigger are predicted to grow 84% this year, and phablets are expected to take over 71% of shipments by 2019, according to IDC’s crystal globe.