While the analyst noted that higher demand for iPhone XS and older models might offset some percentage of the decline, the overall iPhone shipment forecasts for the first quarter of 2019 have, however, been reduced by almost 20%.
Kuo has also cited competition from Huawei’s Mate 20 series as one of the main reasons for reducing the iPhone XR shipment estimations from 100 million to 70 million units.
We have reduced our iPhone XR shipment estimation from 100mn units to 70mn during the new product lifecycle (4Q18–3Q19) for the following reasons: 1) Negative impacts on consumer confidence from the trade war, especially in the Chinese market, 2) expectations from more users for more affordable XR or the dual-camera and narrower bezel design to be provided at the current price level, and 3) competition from Huawei’s Mate 20 series. We have reduced our XR shipment estimations for 4Q18, 1Q19, and 2Q19 by 30–35%, 25–30%, and 25–30% to 30–35, 20–25, and 10–15mn units, respectively.
The analyst expects the current quarter’s iPhone shipments to remain in the same 75–80 million range as predicted previously, while Q1 2019 estimates have been cut to 47–52 million from previous 55–60 million units.