Fred Wilson: By 2020 Apple Will No Longer Be A Top Three Tech Company



Fred Wilson, co-founder and partner at venture capital firm Union Square Ventures, thinks that by 2020 Apple will no longer be a top three technology company, saying the top three will be Google, Facebook, and some company we haven’t heard of yet.

On Tuesday at the TechCrunch Disrupt event in New York, Wilson was asked why he thinks Apple will no longer be a top tech company within the next couple years, he responded:

Because I think they’re just too rooted to the hardware. And I think that hardware is increasingly becoming more commodity. They don’t have anything in the cloud to speak of, and the stuff they have in the cloud I think is largely not good. And I just don’t think they think about data and the cloud in the way you need to think about things.

The venture capitalist does not expect Twitter to gain one of the top three spots in the near future, however, it may take several years for the social media giant to gain a top spot.

About three years ago, Wilson told a group of app developers to write their apps for Android before iOS. He said this because he believes that your apps should be in front of the largest population of users, which he says is Android.

Wilson is known for investing early in companies that have become major players in technology and the Web, such as Twitter, Foursquare, and Kickstarter.

[via CNN Money]


  • iFone

    Even in HW I will try to get the best available. Look at PCs. A market that has been commoditized for a long while, and who is the only one that despite having a low market share, still generates a profit out of what it sells? You can say the same about the phone market right now. HW is the physical window to those services he mentions, and if your hardware is crappy and slow, it will reflect on those services. Like Steve quote from Alan Kay: “people who are really serious about software should make their own hardware”. This is what Apple believes in. Regarding the cloud, let’s see what they are doing, because last time I check, they are building a lot of data centers to host, who knows how many, cloud centric apps and customer data.

  • Al

    “… and some company we haven’t heard of yet.”

    What – a – fucking – moron
    From zero to the top three in 6 years? Give me a break.

  • Chrome262

    yeah he has no clue, and Facebook, I would be surprised if its still around in the next 10 years. They have made one bad purchase after another.

  • Chrome262

    Well with tech moving so quick, maybe, but what a cop out, some unknown company, come on.

  • definingsound

    His prophecy could only be true in the absence of acquisition spending. Xerox, as an example, has an acquisition budget of $500 million annually. The company actually so much money, that the company if forced to work hard to find relevant acquisition targets, there are not so many available. And Xerox is not anywhere near as rich as the likes of Google, Apple, Microsoft, IBM.