In August, Asymco predicted the sales for iPhone 5 hitting 263 million units worldwide, based on Phil Schiller’s statement that each new iPhone so far has sold approximately equal to all previous generations combined. Last week, the firm announced its projected estimate for the iPhone 5 sales saying that Apple could sell around 6 million devices during the opening weekend. Now, Asymco analysts are predicting that the Cupertino giant could see 1 billion in cumulative sales for iOS devices by early 2015, based on the accelerated growth rate for iTunes accounts.
The latest projection form Asymco is based on Apple’s announcement from last week that the number of registered iTunes accounts with 1-click purchasing has hit 435 million. According to the report, measuring the growth in accounts shows steady acceleration. The analysis also reveals that growth in iTunes accounts mirrors the growth in iOS usage as shown the following chart:
The current rate is approximately 12 million new accounts per month.
The alignment between the circles and the red line should offer an alternative method of projecting the platform’s growth.
Projecting the growth forward would imply one billion accounts in another two years. As iPhone and iPads growth increasingly converges with iTunes (of which there are 400 million units sold), the same time frame could apply to iOS cumulative sales.
The analysis implies that since iPhone, iPod and iPad growth increasingly converges with iTunes, of which there are 400 million units sold, the same time frame could apply to iOS cumulative sales.
“This is not a very precise forecast, but late 2014 to early 2015 could see one iOS billion units sold.”