According to research from Morgan Stanley, the iPhone 17 lineup is showing signs of stronger consumer interest than analysts first anticipated after nearly two weeks on the market (via MacRumors).
Morgan Stanley’s team including analyst Erik Woodring reports that supply chain checks and extended shipping estimates on Apple’s online store suggest the iPhone 17, 17 Pro, and 17 Pro Max are seeing robust uptake. The one model that appears to underperform is the ultra-thin iPhone Air.
Based on current data, the investment bank expects Apple’s supply chain will raise production in the second half of 2025, targeting over 90 million units, up from the 84 to 86 million units currently planned. Alongside the production forecast, Morgan Stanley bumped up its price target for Apple stock to US $298.
Despite that adjustment, the analysts caution that much of this optimism may already be priced into current trading levels. Apple shares were trading near US $256 at the time of the report. Looking past 2025, Morgan Stanley remains upbeat on Apple’s longer term shipment potential. The firm expects strong iPhone sales to continue, especially with the possible release of Apple’s first foldable iPhone model in 2026.
The mixed performance between the standard and Pro models on one hand, and the iPhone Air on the other, could carry implications for Apple’s product strategy. The demand strength for the flagship models may push Apple to continue prioritizing premium tiers. Meanwhile the weaker performance of the Air may prompt adjustments to that line’s design.
Morgan Stanley’s raised target suggests confidence that Apple’s hardware sales momentum is strong. Still, the analysts warn that further upside in stock performance would require demand to significantly surpass already optimistic expectations.
Nonetheless, early iPhone 17 series sales suggest Apple is entering this cycle with momentum. While the Air variant may lag, the demand for the standard and Pro models appears strong enough to justify an upward revision in production.
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I was originally planning to skip the 17 but the camera improvements were too compelling to ignore. Also from a camera perspective the iphone 18 rumour wise won't have significant camera upgrades. So my next upgrade might be the iPhone 19 or 20.
The 18 will have camera software improvements and a C2 chip. It's worthwhile to wait it out. Besides, the current color scheme of iPhone Pros are hideous but the unhinged don't think so.