Wealthsimple Predict is now live on the App Store and Google Play, giving Canadians a regulated way to trade on the outcome of real-world events from their phone. It’s a standalone app rather than a feature inside the main Wealthsimple app, though existing clients sign in with the same credentials and open a separate Predictions account.
Last month, Toronto-based Wealthsimple announced the Predict app was coming, powered through a partnership with Kalshi. You buy a yes or no contract on whether something will happen, priced between one cent and 99 cents US. The price reflects what the market thinks the odds are, so a contract trading at 72 cents means the market sees a 72 per cent chance. If you’re right, it settles at $1. If you’re wrong, the most you lose is what you paid. You can also sell out of a position any time before it resolves.
What you can trade on in Canada is narrower than in the US. The Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization authorized Wealthsimple back in March, covering three categories: economic indicators, financial markets, and climate. So you can take a position on whether the Bank of Canada cuts rates, where inflation lands, what the TSX or the loonie does, or how warm a given month turns out. Sports and politics, the two biggest categories on Kalshi in the US, are not allowed here (sports betting is massive in the US).
The contracts come from Kalshi, the largest US prediction exchange, with roughly 4,000 available at launch. Wealthsimple is only the second investment dealer in Canada to get this approval, after Interactive Brokers Canada, and every contract has to have at least 30 days to maturity, which rules out short-term rapid trading.
Trading happens in US dollars, which is standard for prediction markets globally. You can fund the account with USD or deposit Canadian dollars and pay Wealthsimple’s usual FX rate. Each trade, buying or selling, costs two cents US per contract. The market runs 24 hours a day, seven days a week, except Thursdays between 3 a.m. and 5 a.m. ET when the exchange does maintenance.
Wealthsimple says there’s mandatory onboarding before your first trade, plain-language definitions throughout, risk reminders, and warnings when a market is thinly traded. Worth knowing too that the price you see is not guaranteed. Orders fill at the best available price at that moment, and the gap widens on larger orders and quieter markets. Once filled, it cannot be reversed.
As for trading categories, the app shows: Canada; Markets; Companies; Economy; and Climate. Inside the Canada category, things you can bet on include “Bank of Canada decision in Oct 2026?” and the choice of “Maintains rate” or “Hike 25bps”. There are other questions related to housing, and even Canadian companies such as Dollarama, Aritzia, Canadian Tire and Lululemon.
Some context on why this is only arriving now. Canada banned binary options in 2017 after a wave of fraud, and Polymarket was barred from Ontario following a 2025 settlement with the Ontario Securities Commission, a ban running to 2027. An Angus Reid study in May found fewer than one in 20 Canadians have ever traded a prediction market, so this is new ground for most people.
If you don’t have a Wealthsimple account, you can sign up here and get $25 free. You can download Wealthsimple Predict in the App Store or Google Play.
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