UBS Expects Apple to Sell 24M Apple Watches in Fiscal 2015

According to a new survey carried out by UBS, Apple is likely to sell around 24 million Apple Watch units in its first nine months of availability, while analyst Steven Milunovich notes that most units will sell at an average price between $420 and $430, AppleInsider is reporting. The poll, which consisted of 4,000 consumers, also revealed that 10% of consumers said they are “very likely” to buy a smartwatch in the next 12 months.


It must be pointed out that Apple’s fiscal 2015 concludes at the end of September, which means the estimates don’t include the 2015 holiday shopping season. So, if Apple sells 24 million Apple Watch units with an average price of $425, Milunovich says it would result in sales of $10.3 billion, and with an assumed 33% level of gross margin, would add $3.4 billion in profit to the company’s bottom line for fiscal 2015.

Looking to fiscal 2016, Milunovich’s estimates increase to 40 million units, resulting in $17 billion in sales and $6.2 billion in profit. And by 2018, his projections call for Apple to be selling 67.6 million Apple Watch units in a single fiscal year. The analyst said it’s likely that the iPhone and Apple Watch will prove to be complementary products, much like the Mac and iPad. But he said it’s also possible that the Apple Watch could eventually become the successor to the iPhone.

“With a sophisticated user interface and third-party apps coming on, Apple may be readying for the time when the Apple Watch encroaches on the smartphone market.”

UBS is maintaining its “buy” rating for AAPL with a price target of $125.