iPhone 11 Demand Stronger Than Expected: Ming-Chi Kuo

A research note by well-respected Apple industry analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says iPhone 11 and iPhone 11 Pro demand is stronger than expected.

According to a new report from 9to5Mac, Kuo says “iPhone 11 and iPhone 11 Pro order demand is ahead of expectations.” Kuo based his report on Apple’s online shipping estimates following last week’s launch pre-orders. As a result, Kuo has revised its previous 65-70 million units projection to 70 to 75 million units.

“Under the premise that Apple doesn’t announce the pre-order result, we believe that the change of shipping time offered by Apple’s official website is better to reflect the actual demand because Apple’s official website accounts for 30–40% of the total iPhone shipments,” said Kuo, an analyst at TF International Securities. “We think the reference value of pre-order results announced by other channels is lower.”

Kuo, who bases his analysis mostly on Apple’s online shipping estimates, says overall demand is ahead of expectations, and there’s strong demand for the new colours — midnight green for the iPhone 11 Pro/Max, and green as well as purple for the iPhone 11.

Kuo said the iPhone 11 demand is “lacklustre” in the U.S., where consumers “have the highest loyalty for the iPhone,” and there is “strong” demand for Apple’s “more expensive iPhone 11 Pro.” Kuo bases this on shipment times for the more expensive model, which are now two to three weeks past the launch date. Trade-in programs and Apple’s zero-interest installment program helped drive demand for the more expensive phone, Kuo said.

“The demand for iPhone 11 in the Chinese market is stronger than that in the U.S. market,” Kuo said, noting that it’s a big upgrade for people who still own the iPhone 6, iPhone 6s and iPhone 7. “iPhone 11’s price is roughly equivalent to 1–1.3 times the average monthly salary in China, which is close to the price sweet spot (vs. iPhone XR’s price equivalence of 1.5–1.7 times the average monthly salary in China).”

Pre-orders for the new iPhone models continue through this Thursday, September 19th. The next day, the pre-paid orders will start arriving and the devices will start to appear on store shelves.