Apple Set to Reclaim Global Smartphone Crown in 2025

According to new data from Counterpoint Research, Apple is projected to overtake Samsung as the world’s top smartphone maker in 2025, thanks to iPhone 17 surge and rising upgrades (via Bloomberg).

The report notes that iPhone shipments are expected to surge by roughly 10% this year, outpacing Samsung Electronics whose shipments are projected to grow by only 4.6%.

That divergence is enough to push Apple past Samsung, giving the California-based company an estimated global smartphone market share of 19.4%, while Samsung’s share ends up near 18.7%. The pivotal force behind Apple’s resurgence is the recently released iPhone 17 lineup.

Launched in September, the new models have proven wildly popular, triggering double-digit year-on-year sales growth in key markets like the United States and China. Early reports from Counterpoint showed October sales for iPhone 17 jumping significantly compared with the same month last year, even as overall smartphone demand remained muted.

Industry analysts believe the current moment marks the start of a broader replacement wave. Many consumers who bought phones during the Covid-19 boom now appear ready to upgrade. Counterpoint highlights that an estimated 358 million secondhand iPhones were sold between 2023 and mid-2025.

Another contributing factor to Apple’s revival has been favorable macro conditions. A tempering in trade tensions between the United States and China along with a weaker dollar have made iPhones more accessible in emerging markets. That has helped Apple tap into demand beyond its traditional strongholds.

Meanwhile Samsung’s efforts have largely fallen short. Despite continuing to release a wide variety of handsets covering budget, midrange and flagship segments, the firm’s overall growth appears modest compared with Apple’s surge in premium sales. This narrow gap may now cost Samsung its long-held leadership in global smartphone shipments.