According to a recent National Bureau of Economic Research study by economists Caitlin Knowles Myers and Zeke Hooper, the rapid spread of the iPhone explains between 33 and 52% of the decline in U.S. births from 2007 to 2011 (via The New York Times).
The launch of the modern smartphone in 2007 perfectly mirrored the exact moment that fertility rates across the United States began a steep, historic decline. For years, experts blamed this downward trend on economic anxiety following the 2008 financial crisis.
However, when the economy recovered, birthrates kept falling. This mystery led Myers and Hooper to look closer at the digital pocket screens that completely transformed human interaction over the exact same period.
To test their theory, the researchers took advantage of a unique marketing circumstance from that era. When Apple first introduced the iPhone, the company granted AT&T exclusive network rights for nearly four years. Because AT&T did not have universal coverage across the country, a natural experiment emerged. The economists mapped AT&T broadband and cellular coverage county by county to track how quickly the iPhone penetrated different geographic areas.
The data revealed that births to young people fell far more dramatically in counties where AT&T coverage was strong and the iPhone adopted quickly. In areas dominated by competitors like Sprint or Verizon, which did not support the iPhone at the time, birthrates remained stable. The researchers even ran placebo tests, simulating an iPhone launch in earlier years, which yielded no statistical effect. The correlation was uniquely tied to the arrival of Apple’s flagship device.
The drop was most pronounced among women aged 15 to 24. While birthrates among women in their late 30s rose slightly during this timeframe, younger demographics experienced a massive shift away from starting families.
The researchers utilized national survey data regarding time use and digital habits to explain this dramatic drop in conceptions. The evidence suggests that early iPhone adoption significantly reduced real world, face to face interactions.
At the same time, it drove up pornography consumption and reduced overall sexual frequency.
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