Apple to Shift More iPhone, Mac Production from China to India, Thailand

Veteran Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has predicted in a series of Tweets that in response to the ongoing “de-globalization trend,” Apple will be shifting more iPhone and Mac production from China to India and Thailand (via 9to5Mac).

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Apple is adjusting its “supply chain management strategy,” notes Kuo. While these moves will take years to complete, Kuo says the US market could be entirely supplied by assembly non-China locations within 3-5 years.

“The potential cooperation of Tata Group and Pegatron or Wistron can accelerate the increase in the proportion of non-China iPhone production,” says Kuo.

“The main non-China production site for MacBook in the future may be Thailand. All MacBooks are currently assembled from production sites located in China,” he continues.

In the medium term (within 3-5 years), at least the US market (~25-30%+ of global shipments) can be supplied by assembly sites located in non-China to reduce potential impacts from political risks (e.g., US-China tariffs).In the long run:

  • The non-Chinese markets will be supplied by assembly sites located in non-China, while the Chinese market will be supplied by assembly sites located in China.

  • Assemblers can conduct NPI (new product introduction) in China and non-China.

Apple’s reliance on China has been criticized as a major weak spot in its supply chain, particularly amid COVID lockdowns and geopolitical tensions.