Apple to See Strong Sales Growth Due to iPhone 11 Lineup, Upcoming ‘iPhone SE 2″: Kuo

A leading industry analyst says that Apple is on track for strong sales growth in the first quarter of next year.

Apple first-quarter iPhone shipments could rise 10 percent year-over-year thanks to a yet-to-be announced cheaper new iPhone device, reads a note from respected analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of TF Securities (via MacRumors), who has a good track record of predicting Apple’s moves.

“We expect that combined iPhone shipments in 1Q20 will grow around 10% YoY thanks to the iPhone 11’s replacement demand boosted by more affordable prices and iPhone SE2’s shipments starting in 1Q20,” explains Kuo.

“We estimate that iPhone shipment in 1Q20 will be 45–50mn units (iPhone 11 Pro series and iPhone 11 to be 13–15 and 22–24mn units, respectively), which is better than around 42mn units of iPhone shipments in 1Q19 (iPhone XS series and iPhone XR to be around 12 and 14mn units, respectively).”

iPhone 11 shipments are expected to reach 70 to 75 million units this year with supply constraints limiting that number somewhat. iPhone 11 Pro shipments are predicted at 37-40 million units and iPhone 11 shipments are predicted at 36 to 40 million units. “Increased production difficulties” of specific components will purportedly result in lower iPhone 11 Pro sales this holiday quarter than iPhone XS sales in the same quarter a year ago.



Kuo believes the growth will be partially driven by an unannounced new device he calls the iPhone SE, which he believes will be a low-cost iPhone using the iPhone 8 design with an updated processor. Last week, Kuo predicted an iPhone SE2 could launch in the first quarter of 2020.

The iPhone SE 2 is rumoured to feature an iPhone 8 design, but pack iPhone 11-grade specs, including the A13 chip that powers the iPhone 11 series. An actual launch date for the affordable handset isn’t available, but if the leak is accurate, we’d expect the handset to drop late in Q1 2020.