Ming-Chi Kuo Forecasts a 30% YoY Decline in MacBook Shipments

Veteran Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has forecasted a significant 30% year-on-year (YoY) decrease in MacBook shipments for 2023.

Kuo Tweet

In a recent post on Medium, the TF International Securities analyst projects a total of approximately 17 million MacBook shipments.

Kuo highlights the following key observations.

15-inch MacBook Air Demand Decline:

Following the back-to-school (BTS) period, demand for the new 15-inch MacBook Air notably decreased, prompting a downward revision of shipment forecasts by over 20% for this year.

No New Products in 4Q23:

Kuo notes the absence of new products in the fourth quarter of 2023. Consequently, MacBook shipment momentum is expected to be considerably lower compared to previous peak seasons.

This decision is driven by Apple’s need to clear existing inventory and develop new product and marketing strategies for 2024.

New Challenges for Apple

Among the challenges faced by MacBook are the declining demand for work-from-home (WFH) solutions and potential waning consumer interest in Apple’s silicon and mini-LED technology.

Hope in the M3 Processor:

Apple has pinned its hopes on the M3 processor to revitalize MacBook shipments in 2024, although the effectiveness of this strategy remains uncertain.

Higher ASP Impact:

It’s worth noting that the average selling price (ASP) of assembly and key components for the MacBook significantly exceeds that of typical Windows notebooks by more than three times. This substantial price difference has a notable impact on the revenues and profits of crucial MacBook suppliers.

Kuo’s insights certainly indicate a challenging road ahead for Apple’s MacBook line in 2023.

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