Apple Expected to See 15% Decline in iPhone Shipments in 2024: Kuo

In a recent Medium post, veteran Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has delivered somber news regarding Apple’s iPhone shipments in 2024, predicting a 15% decline in sales YoY.

According to Kuo’s latest supply chain survey, Apple is set to experience a substantial decline in its 2024 iPhone shipments, with key upstream semiconductor components reduced to approximately 200 million units.

The decline is projected to affect both the iPhone 15 series and the upcoming iPhone 16 series, with shipments expected to drop by 10–15% year-over-year in the first and second halves of 2024, respectively.

Kuo attributes this decline to structural challenges faced by the iPhone, including the emergence of a new high-end mobile phone design paradigm and a continuous slump in Chinese market shipments.

The new design paradigm incorporates generative AI and foldable phones, with high-end users increasingly favoring foldable phones as their primary choice for phone replacement.

While Samsung benefits from higher-than-expected demand due to the integration of GenAI functions, Apple’s iPhone 15 faces a downward revision in shipment forecasts for the first half of 2024. In recent weeks, Apple’s iPhone shipments in China have witnessed a staggering 30–40% year-over-year decline.

2024 iPhone shipments likely to decline significantly by about 15% YoY due to structural challenges / iPhone 2024出貨量在可能因結構性挑戰而將顯著衰退約15% YoYhttps://t.co/MKL4B67IvY

— 郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo)

January 30, 2024

Kuo predicts a bleak outlook for Apple, anticipating that the company will not introduce new iPhone models with significant design changes or a more comprehensive generative AI ecosystem until at least 2025.

This, together with the resurgence of Huawei and the growing preference for foldable phones among high-end users, paints a challenging landscape for Apple in 2024.