Apple Slashes Vision Pro Shipment Forecasts Amid Slower Demand

Veteran Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo from TF International Securities has shared significant insights from his latest survey on Apple’s product outlook in a new Medium post.

According to Kuo, Apple has drastically revised its shipment projections for the Vision Pro, signaling broader implications for emerging tech trends, such as MR headsets and micro OLEDs.

Apple’s initial shipment forecast for the 2024 Vision Pro model was between 700,000 to 800,000 units. However, the company has now downscaled its expectations to a range of 400,000 to 450,000 units.

This reduction suggests that demand for the Vision Pro in the US market has declined more sharply than anticipated.

Further complicating matters, Apple has scaled back Vision Pro orders ahead of its launch in international markets. This conservative approach towards non-US markets underscores Apple’s cautious stance on overall demand, hinting at potentially lackluster sales prospects globally.

In light of these developments, Apple is reportedly reevaluating its head-mounted display (HMD) product roadmap. Kuo indicates that there might not be a new Vision Pro model introduced in 2025, contrary to earlier expectations.

Kuo says this adjustment could lead to a year-over-year decline in Vision Pro shipments for 2025, with broader implications for several emerging tech trends:

• MR Headsets: The Vision Pro’s challenges in addressing key applications, pricing issues, and comfort without compromising on the see-through user experience could hinder the growth of MR headset devices.
• Pancake: Investors had high hopes for Pancake, expecting it to become a new growth driver in the optical sector. However, with weaker-than-expected Vision Pro shipments, Pancake’s potential contribution to the industry is likely to fall short of investors’ expectations.
• Micro OLED: The Vision Pro and MR headsets were anticipated to be significant applications for Micro OLED technology. Given the slower-than-expected growth in key applications, the mass production and adoption of Micro OLEDs in other small-sized consumer electronics are now likely to face delays.