The gloves are off in the Canadian telecom sector, but according to one of Bay Street’s most seasoned analysts, there are no winners in this current battle.
Vince Valentini, managing director of equity research at TD Cowen, recently sat down with BNN Bloomberg (owned by Bell Media btw) to break down why he has officially downgraded Rogers, Bell, and Telus to ‘hold’ ratings. This is a historic move for Valentini, who has covered the sector for over three decades and noted that he has never had “no Buy ratings in the sector” until now.
The first quarter of 2026 saw a return to aggressive discounting that caught many by surprise. Carriers (well, their flanker brands Fido, Koodo and Virgin Plus) were seen offering weekend flash sales for as low as $25 per month, a sharp drop from the industry average revenue per user (ARPU) of approximately $56.
Valentini expressed his frustration with the shift, stating that “nobody ever wins in a price war” and that the discipline the carriers seemed to have regained over the last year has “all been thrown out the window.”
While the federal government has pushed for a fourth national player to lower costs for Canadians (enter Freedom Mobile, folks), Valentini noted that this makes life difficult for the companies themselves. With population growth stalling, the market is becoming increasingly crowded.
He explained that while the current environment works for consumers, it is a “difficult situation” for the industry. He pointed out that the U.S. market, which only has three national carriers, is currently seeing better economic results than Canada.
To deal with high debt levels and a painful pricing environment, our big telcos are looking to sell non-core assets. Rogers may sell a minority interest in its sports empire (including the Toronto Blue Jays and MLSE) which could be valued at up to $20 billion.
Valentini expects a transaction by the end of this year to bring in cash, noting that “the Rogers family wants to retain control,” so a minority sale to private investors is the most likely path. Meanwhile, Telus is searching for a buyer for a portion of its Telus Health business, and Bell holds a 20 percent stake in the Montreal Canadiens and its own cell towers.
While the Big 3 are struggling with lower margins, Quebecor (parent of Freedom Mobile) remains in a unique position. Because their ARPU is already lower at around $35, they have more flexibility in a price war. Valentini noted that while you could argue it is the strongest growth name in the sector, it is already trading at a premium valuation.
This is the second story we’ve seen the past few weeks from BNN Bloomberg as of late, detailing the grim outlook for Big 3 carriers.
As of writing, shares of Rogers are trading at $46.90, down 10% year to date. BCE is trading at $33.38, up 2.7% year to date. Telus is trading at $17.62 and is down 2% year to date.
This shift comes just as the CRTC moves to ban activation fees, a move that could also strip $50 million to $75 million in revenue from each carrier and creates yet another hurdle for the industry.
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Good, its about time we see these evil greedy monopolies hurt for a bit.
They don’t hurt, they pass the pain along to consumers.
They might have to sell their sport team… Oh no, not the sport team, it’s awful, my phone will never recover from that.
How does $25 plan hurt the consumer?
They’re lying… Do that math. 12.8 million rogers wireless customer… If they were all on a $25/mo plan. Rogers would still be brining in $300Million/Month… But they’re not… They pay an average of $60… Almost 3 times. So rogers making over half a billion each month…
Good. Screw those companies, especially Rogers
If only the top 3 wouldn’t force its independent dealers to pay above retail for phones.
I never minded paying an activation fee for in-store service. The problem was it has never been a reasonable amount for the big 3. I think that I remember paying activation fees as low as $15 for Wind Mobile when they were $45 at the big 3. It’s also bull when you’re given a special opportunity for a discount on a month-to-month plan but the only way you can get it is in-store. Then they waive the activation fee but not immediately. You get charged for it on your first bill but then it comes back as a bill credit in the next 4-6 bills after that. That’s not a good way to keep me.
Its about time, BIG 3s, they were milking people for a while , it’s time to learn a lesson, also , even after all of these reductions, still not even remotely close to features that freedom offers, like 164 countries free roaming, not only US. CANADA , MEXICO, AND best of all guaranteed price freeze, just a matter of time they will loose the market forever to freedom😀 choose to live free
Freedom mobile is the best. Been with them when they were Wind mobile. They’re prices are great and their customer service is awesome.Ive been with Rogers and Bell and both are rip offs with crap customer service.I used Telus prepaid and they aren’t bad however their rates are expensive. I would highly recommend Freedom Mobile to everyone.
Crtc is so freakin corrupted they allow all these companies to monopoly so badly.
look at bell owning virgin/ebox /distributel/glentel/solo mobile.
For Rogers Fido for Telus koodoo…
Seriously stupid crtc wake the f up and how much bribe u gotta take to make it this bad. Remove this stupid crtc and let competitors from usa to come in and let bell die this evil company.
I’ve been in this business for nearly 20 years and the Trouble with this industry, is it bases its revenue forecasting streams etc off of a certain ARPU..kind of like a some gvts base there GDP off of a price of a barrel of oil. YES it’s great for consumers that get $25/month, but for those in the industry it means stores closing, people losing jobs, less innovation and upkeep of the networks, less emphasis on customer service and a switch to automation, which is generally terrible. Look at the lay offs from bell/Telus/Rogers recently.
I’m all for cheap plans, but we will see how sustainable it is…my 2 cents anyway.
Activation fees are bs.your already with a company as your provider and they want to charge you an activation fee just for upgrading a phone which all you need to do is change the sim to new phone.
I doubt this plan is permanent, seems like they would increase this after some months switching to the plan
lmao wth This Valentini fella can go F himself
Ultimately we will get worse service since the govt forces the builders of the infrastructure bell telus & rogers, have to let the low cost providers use their infrastructure, so of course the big three lose money as do their shareholders (mainly Canadians)
And will slow down expanding infrastructure.
Given rogers trys billing 300 plus for basic cable and even after a contract is signed u spend days on hold and months resolving their errors I dont see where they are losing. Maybe if they offered a fair over all price in the first place instead of price gouging for years 🤔 I left bell after 30yrs cause I got the same package for $35 that they were increasing my bill to $150. Only after u leave do they magically find a plan and ability to retain u before that though… nothing they can do? Funny how being shady hurts them not the customer who just wants fairness
no sympathy at all Canada has been screwing Canadians for years on mobile plans
Their only cost is electrically and wages… $25/mo is more than enough to cover that ..
20M customers at $25/mo is 500M/mo… Half a billion per month… And they’re worried about profit????
Never ever in my life heard that environment for competition causes bad effects to the economy, this is basic economics, fair competition creates innovation and benefits the customers. Now, go home and cry Robelus.