Famed Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has weighed in on the current market prospects of the new iPhone XS, iPhone XS Max, and the new Apple Watch Series 4.
According to Kuo’s takeaway (via MacRumors), the iPhone XS Max is selling 3 to 4 times better than the iPhone XS with most consumers opting for the 256GB models. However, Kuo believes that there could be a major shortage of 512GB models due to Samsung being the primary supplier of the NAND flash chips.
Consumers are also preferring the Space Grey and Gold color in large numbers over the Silver color option:
We have determined that the demand for XS Max is better than expected (3–4 times that of XS). The gold and space-grey colors are significantly more popular than the silver. 256GB is the most popular, and 512GB is subject to a serious shortage because only Samsung can currently ship NAND Flash well. We are positive that XS Max shipments will grow steadily in 4Q18 thanks to demand from Asia market and the gift season.
Given the high demand for the iPhone XS Max, Kuo has increased his shipment estimates 5 to 10 percent for the second half of the year for the model and believes that the phone will remain in swing well into the holiday quarter, with the Asian market lending a hand to buoy the demand.
Additionally, Kuo predicts the upcoming iPhone XR to sell very well, with more customers set upgrade to the model instead of last year’s iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus. He also thinks that supply constraints experienced by the suppliers JDI and LG Display will be resolved by the end of October, resulting in a production of 35-40 million units.
Kuo also states that the Apple Watch Series 4 is selling much better than expected as has increased his estimate for 2018 sales from 18 million units to 18.5-19.5 million. Since Quanta is already producing the new Apple Watch at full capacity, increased production will be dependent on second supplier Compal getting up and running in November:
Apple Watch Series 4 demand is much better than expected. The capacity of the assembler Quanta is full already; therefore, the supply cannot improve significantly until second supplier Compal’s mass production for Apple Watch Series 4 starting from November. We have increased the Apple Watch shipment forecast in 2018 from 18mn to 18.5–19.5mn units.