In a move described as “unprecedented” in over 30 years of market coverage, TD Securities has downgraded Canada’s ‘Big 3’ telcos, citing a destructive “price war risk.”
According to a report from Yahoo Finance, analyst Vince Valentini dropped Bell, Rogers, and Telus to “Hold” on Thursday. The downgrade comes as aggressive wireless pricing in the early months of 2026 fails to drive new subscriber growth, instead creating a “negative repricing cycle” and higher customer churn.
We’ve seen flanker brands Fido, Koodo and Virgin Plus recently end Q1 with $25/80GB Canada-US-Mexico plans, which created a final feeding frenzy. You can thank Freedom Mobile releasing a $40/250GB global plan that spurred on this competition.
TD lowered its price targets across the board, reflecting a grim outlook for the sector:
Valentini noted that with these changes, TD now has zero “Buy” ratings among the five Canadian telecom and cable names. “All carriers showing similar price aggression is simply a race to the bottom with no net winner on volume,” Valentini wrote, according to Yahoo Finance.
The outlook for Telus was particularly cautious. TD is now forecasting a 30 per cent reduction in the Telus dividend by the end of 2026. As growth in core wireless operations stalls, analysts say the execution of asset sales (specifically in the healthcare sector) has become critical under incoming CEO Victor Dodig.
Other analysts are echoing these concerns. Scotia Capital’s Maher Yaghi lowered 2026 growth forecasts from 2.0% to just 1.6%, pointing to Stats Canada scaling back population growth estimates.
Similarly, JPMorgan flagged that declining immigration is slowing market growth, and slashed BCE’s first-quarter subscriber forecasts, now projecting a net loss of 5,000 mobile phone users for the quarter, down from a previously expected gain of 15,000.
While the “price war” has been a win for Canadian consumers looking for cheaper monthly plans, analysts warn that the impact on average revenue per user (ARPU) is now severely hitting the bottom line for the country’s incumbent carriers.
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After robbing us blind for many years. It’s hard to feel sorry for them.
Only reason many stayed in on Telus is for the juicy dividend. Many saw that it was eating into capital while they tried to retain it.
It’s a giant scam they’re all in cahoots with each other you think there’s an actual price war… Those $25 plans will be $45 next year, and $65 the year after…