Analysts at Nomura expect that a “supercycle” will develop concerning Apple in the last few months of 2017, estimating that the upcoming iPhone 8 will be a much, much bigger success for the company than the iPhone 6 was.
Business Insider reports that Nomura thinks the market is underestimating the likely scale of iPhone 8 sales. Specifically because iPhone 6 sales were so high, the base of would-be upgraders is much larger:
We estimate the iPhone 8 will launch into an iOS subscriber base 45-50% larger than the iPhone 6 did and model 86 million iPhones in F1Q18 (from 83 million).”
The increase in subscribers has been driven by sales of the iPhone 6, the analysts say: “We believe the iPhone 6 drove the iOS base up ~35%, followed by 5-10% increases from the subsequent devices.” Anyone who is still using an iPhone 6 is a prime candidate for buying a new iPhone in late 2017.
Nomura is bullish on Apple’s stock headed into 2017 ahead of an iPhone 8 super-cycle. In a recent report, analyst Jeffrey Kvaal reduced the firm’s projections for March and June quarters’ iPhone 7 Plus demand. However, Kvaal believes this muted iPhone 7 Plus demand will simply be pushed back to the iPhone 8 cycle. Nomura believes the general consumer population is not fully appreciating the potential of the iPhone 8 cycle.
“Consensus models but modest growth in Dec-18 unit volumes, despite an iOS subscriber base that will be 45–50 percent larger than the prior iPhone 6 supercycle,” Kvaal explained.
The iPhone 8, codenamed “Ferrari,” according to leaked manufacturing documents, is expected to include a new kind of OLED screen already used by Samsung, which would allow the phone to have a borderless, all-display front surface, along with a number of significant upgrades. Hopefully these upgrades drive consumers to purchase the next-gen iPhone at record numbers.