Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has released new estimates that suggest Apple’s Vision Pro shipments in 2024 could fall short of market expectations.
“Based on some component suppliers’ maximum production capacity estimates, Vision Pro shipments in 2024 will be at most 400,000–600,000 units,” said Kuo on Tuesday. This is significantly less than the market’s anticipated figure of over 1 million units.
Kuo also speculates that Apple may have scrapped plans for the rumoured low-cost version of Vision Pro, expected to launch in 2025, as previously reported by Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman. “Unless Apple significantly reduces the price of Vision Pro, the anticipated significant shipment growth in Vision Pro shipments starting in 2025 may not materialize,” he adds.
Further, Kuo indicates that the Vision Pro 2 could enter mass production by the first half of 2027 at the latest, implying a lack of hardware updates for the Vision Pro in the near future. While Kuo believes the Vision Pro will offer an excellent user experience, he questions the market need for the product.
“The Vision Pro may take longer than the market expects to become the next star product of the iPhone,” concludes Kuo. Sources familiar with the matter indicate that these projections could influence investor sentiment around Apple’s future product lineup.
Apple Vision Pro will start at $3,499 USD (it’ll likely be $5,000 in Canada after taxes) and will debut first in the U.S. in “early 2024”. Tim Cook recently said the Vision Pro launch timeline is on track for 2024.
