In a week from now, we’ll find out how many iPhones Apple sold during the holiday quarter of calendar 2014. Until then, often-cited and sometimes-accurate Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty is back with her estimate: 69 million units sold between October 1 and December 31 (via CNET).
Her estimate is among the wildest we’ve heard so far, as she upped her forecast from 62 million and later 67 million. In fact, 69 million is well above last year’s 51 million units. However, looking back at previous reports, we see a similar pattern related to a major move: iPhone sales jumped more than 129% the year when Apple introduced the iPhone 5 with a 4-inch screen (37.04 million in Q1 2012 versus 47.8 million in Q1 2103).
If we expect a 129% jump in iPhone sales for this year’s fourth calendar quarter, that would mean about 65 million units sold. Katy Huberty estimates a slightly bigger growth compared to Q1 2014, noting that demand was higher than supply.
Looking forward to the March quarter, Huberty says Apple could sell more than 50 million units because suppliers are apparently building more than 52 million units, and Apple may request even more.
Huberty also expects the sale of 3 million Apple Watch units during the current quarter, adding an additional $1.4 billion to Apple’s revenue.
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Will that effect secondary market resale value?