How to Estimate the First Apple Watch Sales Figures
While iPhone figures carry the highest priority in Apple’s quarterly earnings call (scheduled for today after the markets close), today marks the first time the company will report on Apple Watch sales.
Given the fresh launch of its wearable, all eyes are on Apple’s report and hints at possible sales figures. Don’t expect Apple to disclose Watch sales: Tim Cook has already said that it would group the revenue generated by this new product into the “other products” category.
The Apple Watch was only available in nine countries for the first three months – Apple launched it in seven more countries on June 26 – so the sales figures will be limited compared to products that are available worldwide.
Since Apple has been silent on Watch sales figures, the only available information is coming from third-party sources such as Slice Intelligence, which estimates roughly 3 million units sold. But that’s only for the US market, since the market research company has its limitations. There are no sources of information from other countries.
But as Quartz highlights today, there is a way to get access to the first Apple Watch sales figures: We need to look into the “other products” category, which includes the iPod, the Apple TV, Beats Electronics, and accessories businesses as well.
But the revenue will be there – the trick will be to spot the change. Quartz points to previous reports showing that revenue in this category has dropped about 6% over the previous year. That means about $1.6–1.7 billion for the June quarter, without the Apple Watch.
Now comes the trick: Any jump in revenue would represent Apple Watch sales. Katy Huberty of Morgan Stanley predicts the “other products” category revenue to reach $3.1 billion for the past quarter.
Of course, to get the “final numbers” you need to calculate a reasonable price per Watch, which Quartz puts at between $500 and $700. Considering the above, every $1 billion in that specific category would mean about 2–3 million Watch units. So let the guessing begin!